Tamasha: Box Office Prediction & Analysis

Tamasha: Box Office Prediction & Analysis

Tamasha beckons tomorrow and it is apt to predict/analyze the film's box office returns.  Before delving into number crunching using some models based on a combination of various factors such as extrapolation, historical data points etc., It becomes important to understand what may or may not work.

What works for Tamasha

• Pairing: Ranbir & Deepika as a combination has delivered one of the biggest romantic blockbuster in the recent past. Their pairing looked fresh and was highly appreciated. There definitely is excitement to see them together again on the Big screen.

• Writer/Director: Imtiaz Ali is known for unusual story line and has a knack of weaving magic when he directs his own stories. More often than not he has come up with intelligent handling.

• Timing: Tamasha has got one of the best free run at the box office. There is no major release till 18th December. There could be a little pressure owing to school/college exams. But still Tamasha is staring at 18 days of uninterrupted run as the only other major release in the interim is HATE STORY which is a different genre and will attract a different set of movie goers. Both film has the capacity to run independent of each other without cutting into each other's business.

•  Lyrics & Music: Irshad is known to write meaningful songs and Rahman needs no introduction. This combination along with presentation of songs by director would definitely be a BIG plus.

What doesnt'work for Tamasha

• Ranbir's dismal Box Office returns: Ranbir Kapoor's last three movies have been big disasters at the Box Office. And as a result his stature and dependability has taken a big dent. The excitement is missing for a Ranbir film. He is an amazing actor but badly needs a good outing.

• Imtiaz Ali: Being an intelligent director has its disadvantages as well. Such directors tend to tread a dangerous path where the complexity of their story needs deft handling. The good thing is that Imtiaz , the director, is directing Imtiaz , the story writer. This makes sure that complex yet delicate intricacies would be handled deftly. However there is always a chance to go wrong which could make the whole experience messy.

• Sajid Nadiadwala as a producer: Sajid is known to be a big producer. His choice of films in the past makes it clear that his idea of Bollywood is over the top action and gloss. Having said that I do see a shift in his production choices with 2 states, Tamasha and Rangoon in 2016. But still. For this movie he is teaming with Imtiaz who has a completely disparate approach. Highway didn’t matter as it was low budget and there would have been limited interactions. Imitiaz more often than not would have got his way. But here the case is different. This is big budget movie and a lot more is at stake. A lot more money is involved and so Sajid’s inputs would definitely be more. This means trouble when the story is complex. Also more money at disposal for a director of Imtiaz's caliber adds to this trouble. I mean he would not know how and where to use this additional budget and so in order to make things grand and appealing he may deviate from his philosophy. Similar stuff happened with Anurag Kashyap who when given a big budget floundered. Though his movie was loved by purists, it was rejected by the majority. In short for the likes of Imtiaz Ali & Anurag Kashyap it is the content & direction that matters and they should not deviate from this fact just because of their access to big budget.

Verdict

I have read many critics in the years gone by and have realized that the big names in the business seem to be having some vested interest and hence are duping people with incorrect reviews. I intend to give an honest opinion as I have no financial interest and am doing this as a hobby. Make note that I am an avid movie follower and though I term it as a hobby there would not be any letup in the seriousness associated with this effort.

I am using a logical approach to predict the box office for Tamasha. Based on the stars that I give after I get a chance to watch & review the movie and using my statistical model I have come up with the following Prediction as far the Box Office returns go:

1. Stars :  < = 3.0 ----> Box Office Collection would be 70 -80 crores
2. Stars:   = 3.5   ----> Box Office Collection would be 110 - 120 crores
3. Stars:   > 3.5   ----> Box Office Collection would be 145 - 155 crores

I sincerely doubt that the movie of this genre will earn more than 155 crores even in the best case scenario.

Note:

To give credence to my diligence, on the 4th day of PRDP release (15^th November), I had made the following tweets and it is there for everyone to see:

By disaster I meant it would not be anywhere close to 300 crores or even 250 crores. Even 225 would be tough but achievable.

-Shashank